Entries Tagged 'emerging markets' ↓

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Quick ethical question - whom would you rather bailout - 1) an otherwise honest industry that makes real products that people use or 2) a corrupt business that has confessed to stealing at least $1 billion from investors ?

Well if you chose 1, the Indian Government would beg to differ. Yes, the Indian government is actually considering bailing out Satyam.

Wonderful idea - Lets take taxpayer money collected from hard-working citizens, and put it into a failed and corrupt company so that overpaid senior managers can receive their bonuses.

And - by the time the bailout money trickles down, not much will be left for low/mid-level employees - many of whom will probably be laid off anyway.

Predictions are probably the best Rorschach tests for bloggers and investors. Everyone is in the prediction business, because every act of investment (including sitting on cash in the sidelines) is an implicit prediction about the future.

Writing down my predictions for the year has proven itself to be a great tool for me to become explicitly aware of my cognitive biases. Because if there’s one thing I’ve learnt in investing, its this - It’s not what you don’t know that kills you, but instead its what you know that’s wrong. (Can’t seem to find the original source for this quote).

So here’s the top 10 predictions on my mind as of today:

1. Stock market - The Obamarama stock market rally will be mostly over by Obama’s first quarter as President. By late 2009, it will be obvious that all of the government bailout and spending efforts are like holding an umbrella in a hurricane. The nation will finally resign to the reality of a longer term depression. This realization alongwith a few shocking municipal bankruptcies will cause the stock market to finally bottom in early 2010.
2. Bond bubble - The treasury bond bubble will continue to inflate, pushing yields to even lower levels than today. Bond bears will get clobbered in 2009 by being too early and too aggressive. The only thing that can burst the treasury bond bubble is a “growth scare”, which will not occur until 2010.
3. Obama - Barack Obama will not have the courage to give the economy the bitter pill it needs to quickly get rid of the mal-investments and excessive leverage that led to the current crisis. Nor will Obama have the courage to suggest that the government needs to be a referee in the market, rather than the dominant player it has become thanks to Paulson and Bernanke. The high of “Yes we can” will slowly morph into a hangover of “Yes we could have.”
4. Economy - By the end of 2009, almost everyone in the country will continue to believe in the perpetual motion machine that is Keynesian economics and fractional reserve banking. The Keynesians, led by Paul Krugman will still propagate the “free lunch” myth: Deficit spending and huge amounts of bad credit can cure all the problems created by deficit spending and huge amounts of bad credit.
5. Suburbia - 2008 will be seen in 2009 to have been the last year of the techno-triumphalist era. By the end of 2009, it will be apparent that technology (software, finance, green technology) alone cannot indefinitely sustain the now defunct credit-driven consumerist suburban SUV lifestyle. Austerity will be the new black.
6. Real estate - Real estate will overcorrect on the way down, and “fortress areas” like Cupertino in the Bay Area will also experience severe price reductions as IPO/options wealth, jumbo mortgage financing and the hope for a quick recovery dries up. It will be finally realized that encouraging excessive home ownership tends to hurt the economy by making it harder for workers to relocate to where the jobs are.
7. Alternative energy - Alternative energy and OPEC countries will ironically find themselves on the same side, hoping for higher oil prices so that their respective industries and  economies become viable. Oil prices will continue to disappoint them by being stagnant, and this will be a silver lining for the middle-class consumers.
8. Pakistan - The world will again be fashionably outraged for a few days in the Fall of 2009, when it becomes clear that new attacks were being planned against Indian targets even while Pakistan was condemning the recent 26/11 Mumbai attacks. India and Pakistan will again lurch towards war after the next terror attack. The US will once again force India to back down by essentially telling India: “not tonight dear, I have a headache”.
9. Microsoft - Microsoft will realize (if it has not already) that there is no point going after has-been giants like Yahoo, and will instead (correctly) acquire Facebook and/or Twitter at bargain prices. For the first time in its history Google misses out on the obvious due to the “not built here” syndrome.
10. Google - Google revenue will surprise to the upside, but it will be at the cost of cutting down on other expenses, including payroll/bonuses, bandwidth bills for Youtube and possibly even Gmail and other Google apps.

Never intended as investment advice. Read my disclaimer.

Ever wonder who would invest in 0% interest treasury securities ?

While regular folks like you and me can invest in treasury securities, we aren’t driving the market. Treasuries are where institutions play. When it comes to big money market funds, and cash/income components of various mutual funds or other investments, these institutions are usually buying up treasuries. Especially with money market funds, since safety is paramount, these securities are the go-to place to find safety. That being said, this is where billions of dollars are traded. Yield, or rate of return isn’t as much of a concern as protection of principal, so the 0% rate is of little concern.

In addition to institutional investors, foreign banks are the other major player. In fact, the government reports that about half of the over $5 trillion in publicly traded debt is owned by foreign nations — namely China. Even with the economic turmoil here and abroad, U.S. debt is still viewed as one of the safest investments around the globe. So, when yields are down, it doesn’t matter when you’re looking for absolute safety on a global scale.

And finally, you have many pension funds investing heavily in safe investments like treasury securities. Just like money market mutual funds that seek safety, you have plenty of pension funds worth billions that need to be able to keep up with paying current retirees, and to allocate investments in this economic climate to protect what assets they do have.

Who Invests in 0% Interest Treasury Securities and Why? : Generation X Finance.

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The following could be written about any real estate market over the last decade, but is especially stunning coming out of Dubai:

For the past decade at least, real-estate speculation has been the national sport. The price of houses and apartments, many not yet built, rose by 43 percent in the first quarter of this year alone. Mortgage money was easy to get and speculators commonly flipped properties for substantial profits in a matter of weeks, sometimes even days, before the first monthly payments came due. Everybody wanted in on the game. “Employees didn’t focus on their work anymore,” complains the chairman of a regional transport company. “They all wanted to go buying property for 10 percent down, if that.” As of June, Dubai had 42 million square feet of office space under construction, more than any other city in the world, even Shanghai.

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What was a flat desert 20 years ago is today an urban canyon. Such is the frenzy that the Hard Rock Café, built among vacant lots in 1997, is now surrounded by skyscrapers and plans to tear it down for another high-rise are being debated as if the Hard Rock were a heritage site.

Dubai’s Last Hurrah | Newsweek Project Green | Newsweek.com

What if all that investment had gone towards building world-class universities instead of ultra-luxury condos ?

One of my most profitable investment tools has been an understanding of why sentiment can often produce counter-intuitive results. Consider this statement by the Indian Finance Minister Chidambaram:

“Hotels must cut tariffs; airlines must cut prices; real estate must cut rates of apartments and homes they sell; car makers and two-wheeler makers must cut prices,” he said, while addressing industrialists at the Indian Economic Summit being organised by the World Economic Forum and the CII in New Delhi.

FM asks realty firms, airlines to cut prices

Of course the Finance Minister wants GDP growth at the cost of profitability, especially in an election year. Every economic transaction adds to the GDP, even if it is loss making for the parties involved. You could boost GDP by paying half of the unemployed workforce to dig a ditch, and the other half to fill it up (yes, India actually has a program along those lines.)

But the deeper question is - why don’t these industries (especially real estate) cut prices to get inventory moving ?

The answer lies in sentiment - real estate is not supposed to go down. Realtors have sold the emerging markets this marketing drivel for too long. A normal market would attract buyers as prices go down. But in today’s sentiment-driven world, reducing prices actually might scare away buyers who see something that “isn’t supposed to happen”. Realtors worry (correctly) that a precedent of lower prices will encourage buyers to wait even longer.

So now we wait for the ongoing credit crunch to force the realtors to sell sell sell, and for the sentiment to turn. And you can bet the market will overreact on the downside too.

(Originally written for VentureWoods - India’s leading venture capital and startup blog)

The following paragraph jumped out from something I wrote in 2005.

U.S. real-estate slowdown will have global consequences: Interest rates, U.S. bond prices, U.S. consumer confidence, dollar exchange rates (and hence the offshoring business), combined with the huge (and increasing) U.S. trade deficit are all pieces of a fragile domino game. This game could easily turn ugly if the U.S. real estate market accelerates its slowdown, or even worse, turns out to be a bubble. Bad news in the U.S. housing market could trigger a global recession.

(From Predictions for 2006 from an Indian perspective on VentureWoods, emphasis added)

This seems all remarkably prescient and oracle-y now, and I almost made a suitably massive upgrade to my ego. But like recent Sensex rallies my ego quickly came crashing down when I read some of my other predictions - e.g. Yahoo will start catching up with Google (Hope is eternal, and I might yet come back to gloat).

But lets get back to more important things:

There seems to be a tendency amongst many to regard a recession as a finite event, associated with a numerical reduction in GDP or stock market values. Business writers seem to compare a recession with a winter, where you hunker down (”cash is king”) and hibernate on minimal life support - after all, spring is just around the corner.

That might be a useful survival strategy, but it misses the bigger point - recessions (and especially this one) are discontinuities with totally unpredictable consequences (gosh I sound like a Nassim Taleb fanboy). To continue my useful but terribly flawed nature analogy, recessions are not like winters, but more like the Ice age that made the dinosaurs extinct. Like the Ice Age, this recession has already essentially destroyed the US Investment Bank business model.

What other changes will this Ice Age bring? I see a few possibilities:

1. Currency changes - The hegemony of the US financial industry (and the financial industry in general) is over. As I write this, the G-20 is meeting to discuss what could very well be the birth of Bretton-Woods II. A covert agreement to safely achieve a massive devaluation of the US Dollar is not out of the question (what will the Rupee do ?). Nor is it impossible to envision the emergence of an alternate reserve currency (or more likely a basket).

2. Consumer changes - We have lived, learned and grown up in a world where the world (now mostly China) manufactures and the US consumes. That world has changed. The US consumer is now on life support. She might live for a long while more, but that vitality and voracious appetite is unlikely to return. For the sake of my mental well-being I prefer to not imagine the consequences of this to the Chinese economy.

3. Fiscal policy changes - The ghost of Keynes is stirring - World governments will unleash the mother of all fiscal (deficit) spending rather than allow deflation to take hold. This sort of worldwide government stimulus is unprecedented, and its implications (or even its effectiveness) are unknown at this point. Will all the stimulus go into productive areas of the economy or will it be gambled away ?

4. Political landscape changes - The current bonhomie between nations and “global co-operation to solve the crisis” is very fragile and based on mutual fear. The Doha talks fiasco shows that developing nations are no pushovers now. There is a real chance that this “united in fear” sentiment could morph into a very ugly blame game. The parallels of the current situation to the Nixon Shock (when the French demanded gold from the US in return for dollars) are eerie and very scary.

So my question to the readership of this blog is this - does anyone see these changes too ? And more importantly, what other seismic shifts do you see occurring in our economic and business landscape ?

(Originally written for VentureWoods - India’s leading venture capital and startup blog)

From the “Report on Business” comes this interesting tidbit:

Mr. Saji noted that 65 per cent of China’s bank lending is secured by real estate, and that long-term leaseholds represent up to 20 per cent of revenues for many regional governments - leaving both at risk in the slumping real estate market. On top of that, he said, many Chinese have borrowed money from banks “under the pretense of buying a home” but spent the money on cars and stocks instead. “This suggests that China actually has its own brand of subprime loan problem,” he said.

reportonbusiness.com: China positioned to unleash global deflation

It was all very well to be for the Chinese government to support free markets on the way up. But now that loan defaults, deflation and a possible depression is upon us, will the Chinese government stay committed to the free market ? Or will we see a “reversion to the mean”?

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